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- 30. January 2025
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Global Markets Sunday News
Tops of the week
Moderna +21.58 %: The good news keeps coming for the US pharmaceutical company. Following extensive funding from the US government, Moderna has been awarded the contract to supply 19 European countries with Covid-19 vaccines.
Luxury goods sector +18.38%: After Richemont had already shone with outstanding figures in the previous week, Burberry now followed suit with good results. Thanks to the performance of the British company, the significant upward momentum in the luxury goods sector could continue for a little longer.
Netflix +13.92 %: The US streaming service presented very solid figures for 2024. While the competition appears to be weakening, Netflix continues to grow strongly and generate high profits. The number of subscribers has also risen by 16%.
Oracle +14.02%: The cloud company is benefiting from the announcement of the Stargate project, in which Oracle plans to collaborate with OpenAI and SoftBank. The project will be carried out as a joint venture and is intended to consolidate the leading role of the United States in the field of artificial intelligence.
Siemens Energy +16.35 %: Donald Trump’s announcement that he wants to support the US energy sector is benefiting the energy company. The German group generates almost 20% of its sales in the USA.
Vicat +8.1 %: Barclays views the French cement manufacturer as an attractive investment option. According to the analyst, European cement manufacturers are likely to present solid figures for the 2024 financial year – mainly thanks to favorable weather conditions and a favorable price environment.
EQT +7.11 %: The Swedish private equity firm follows hot on the heels of its US counterparts. The figures are quite respectable in view of the increase in assets under management and the dividend (+19%).
Adidas +5.3%: The German group exceeded expectations with its preliminary figures for 2024 – including sales growth of 11%. Despite the current difficult situation for the industry, CEO Bjørn Gulden was optimistic about future growth.
Flops of the week
Puma -20.83 %: Der Kurs des Sportartikelherstellers brach am Donnerstag ein, nachdem das 4. Quartal gegenüber den Analystenschätzungen eher bescheiden ausgefallen war. Hohe Zinsaufwendungen hatten den Gewinn geschmälert. The group will inevitably have to cut costs if it wants to maintain its margins.
Ørsted -14.57 %: The new year did not get off to a good start for the European wind energy sector. The fact that Donald Trump wants to stop new wind power projects in the USA is ruining the Danish company’s business prospects.
PostNL -10.43 %: Der niederländische Paketdienst wird für das abgelaufene Geschäftsjahr voraussichtlich keine den Erwartungen entsprechenden Zahlen vorlegen können. PostNL zufolge müsse die Verpflichtung zur Erbringung von Universalpostdienstleistungen dringend angepasst werden. The company also called for greater government support.
Schaeffler -9.17 %: Der deutsche Industriekonzern konnte seinen Umsatz stark steigern. Das Wachstum ist jedoch vor allem der Übernahme von Vitesco im vergangenen Jahr zu verdanken. Insgesamt fällt die Bilanz deutlich negativ aus: Margins have fallen dramatically and the comprehensive cost-cutting program announced in November 2024 has yet to produce any significant results.
Walgreens Boots -5.19 %: The US Department of Justice has filed a lawsuit against the pharmacy chain alleging it prescribed opioids without a legitimate medical reason. The company had ignored warning signals and put pharmacists under pressure.
Barry Callebaut -9.08%: The Swiss chocolate maker revised its sales forecast downwards. The company cited difficult negotiations between customers and retailers, short-term weak demand and delays in orders. The price of cocoa beans has also exploded, putting pressure on margins.
Tryg -5.86 %: Investors had not set the bar particularly high for the figures of Denmark’s largest insurer. Nevertheless, the company missed market estimates, especially in terms of profit.
Alstom -6.14 %: The rail group’s share price rose by 77% in 2024. Expectations for the results were correspondingly high. Although Alstom did not disappoint overall, shareholders were rather skeptical with regard to the order backlog – even though the company has stated its intention to acquire orders according to the principle of “class instead of mass”. The good news was apparently already priced into the share price.
Telefonica -4.76 %: The Spanish telecommunications group has announced a surprising change at the top: CEO José María Álvarez Pallete is taking his hat off. He will be succeeded by Marc Murtra, most recently head of the Spanish IT company Indra Sistemas, but with no experience in the telecommunications industry.
Commodities
Energy: Oil prices are under pressure following Donald Trump’s latest statements. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, he called on OPEC and Saudi Arabia to produce more oil in order to lower the price. However, it remains uncertain whether Trump will be able to convince OPEC. This is because the most important OPEC members, such as Saudi Arabia, need the revenue to balance their national budgets. The Trump administration also wants to boost oil production in the USA. In an environment of low prices, however, it is hardly conceivable that the major US oil producers will increase their production. The EIA’s weekly report also shows that crude oil inventories in the US have fallen for the ninth time in a row, by 1.02 million barrels. This decline occurred despite lower refinery capacity utilization, mainly for maintenance reasons. North Sea Brent crude fell to USD 77.90, while its US counterpart WTI was quoted at around USD 75.
Metals: Trump’s comments did not fail to have an impact in this segment either. The announcement of tariffs of 25% against Mexico and Canada raised fears of global countermeasures. The price of copper continued to rise in London (spot price: USD 9,232), as did the price of aluminum (USD 2,623). The robust performance of both is being boosted by signs of economic recovery in China and, in particular, Trump’s open dialog with China, which gives hope for a potential trade agreement. Meanwhile, the US dollar weakened slightly under the influence of uncertainty over US trade policy. The devaluation of the greenback sent the price of gold upwards. The precious metal rose to USD 2,775 per troy ounce, its highest level in almost three months, and is heading for its fourth consecutive weekly gain.
Agricultural products: The extreme cold spell in the USA is threatening the winter wheat harvest and increasing the upward pressure on prices. Wheat rose by 3.7 cents to 550 cents per bushel (contract maturing in March 2025), while the price of corn climbed to 490 cents.
Macroeconomics
Market sentiment: big announcements are not necessarily followed by big steps. What if Trump acts more moderately as president than he did during the election campaign? After a meeting with Xi Jinping, he declared that he would prefer to avoid tariffs against China. This really got the markets going. European stock markets welcomed the news and at the same time hoped that the old continent would also be spared tariffs. The big loser, however, was the US dollar, which fell significantly and could even lose its superiority against the euro. However, there was no interest rate miracle: Although the yield on 10-year US government bonds stabilized, it remains above 4.50%. A significant fall can only be expected if there is positive news on inflation and government spending. Until then, interest rates will continue to hang over the stock markets like the sword of Damocles.
Crypto currencies
Cryptocurrencies: This week, Bitcoin climbed above USD 109,000, reaching a new all-time high. This came after Donald Trump launched his own digital currency TRUMP last weekend – two days before his inauguration – whose valuation had risen to USD 15 billion in the meantime. A cryptocurrency that is clearly recognizable as a memecoin, as it has no use whatsoever and is purely an object of speculation. The valuation has since fallen again by 58%. However, crypto investors were pleasantly surprised at the end of the week when Donald Trump signed a presidential decree aimed at promoting the leading role of the US in the digital financial sector. Behind this somewhat unwieldy formulation lies a series of amendments on the introduction of stablecoins, the protection of public blockchains and the formation of a working group tasked with examining the feasibility of introducing and managing a national digital currency reserve. But what form should this take in concrete terms? The next few weeks will show.
Outlook
Cryptocurrencies: This week, Bitcoin climbed above USD 109,000, reaching a new all-time high. This came after Donald Trump launched his own digital currency TRUMP last weekend – two days before his inauguration – whose valuation had risen to USD 15 billion in the meantime. A cryptocurrency that is clearly recognizable as a memecoin, as it has no use whatsoever and is purely an object of speculation. The valuation has since fallen again by 58%. However, crypto investors were pleasantly surprised at the end of the week when Donald Trump signed a presidential decree aimed at promoting the leading role of the US in the digital financial sector. Behind this somewhat unwieldy formulation lies a series of amendments on the introduction of stablecoins, the protection of public blockchains and the formation of a working group tasked with examining the feasibility of introducing and managing a national digital currency reserve. But what form should this take in concrete terms? The next few weeks will show.
Bitcoin | Gold
The path to freedom
Dr. Udo Amend, a renowned expert in the fields of cryptography and finance, has been working intensively on these topics for decades. With his extensive knowledge and experience, he sheds light on the fascinating connections between Bitcoin and gold in his book “Bitcoin | Gold – The Path to Freedom”.
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