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Global Markets Sunday News
Risk appetite returns
Market participants became more risk-tolerant again this week, as Donald Trump appears to be considering a significant reduction in tariffs on China and has no intention of dismissing Jerome Powell. As a result, financial markets rebounded strongly, buoyed by US tech stocks and solid earnings from a number of European companies. Volatility eased slightly, especially as the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in the near future increased. This is welcome news, but the outlook remains uncertain.
Tops of the week
SAP +8.27%: The German software provider published outstanding financial results for the first quarter. SAP is benefiting from the boom in artificial intelligence, and revenue in the cloud business climbed 26%. The company also confirmed its targets for the full year.
Accor +10.96%: The hotel group reported solid results for the first quarter. Growth was mainly driven by the luxury and lifestyle segment, where revenue per available room (RevPAR) rose by 8.3%. Accor also reaffirmed its medium-term targets.
Alphabet +7.14%: After several weeks of uncertainty surrounding the major US tech companies, Alphabet’s first-quarter figures reassured investors. Advertising revenue was a key factor in the strong business momentum, rising 9.8% year-on-year. Alphabet also confirmed its intention to invest USD 75 billion in AI infrastructure this year.
Galderma +18.71%: The Swiss dermatology group exceeded expectations. Sales were 2% above analyst estimates. The company still aims to grow by 10-12% per year. This already takes into account the new tariffs. The CEO reassured investors by stating that the majority of products are not affected and that the situation is manageable.
Safran +8.44%: The aerospace supplier published solid figures and expects its annual performance to be at the upper end of the forecast range. This applies to both EBIT and cash flow. In addition, the CEO was optimistic that products in the sector could be exempt from tariffs in China.
Bayer +9.32%: The agrochemical and pharmaceuticals group is doing everything it can to turn the tide. In 2025, Bayer plans to launch two new active ingredients on the market and expand the range of applications for its drugs by two additional indications in order to mitigate the effect of expiring patent protection for Xarelto. The Pharmaceuticals division is expected to return to growth in 2027.
Flops of the week
Northrop Grumman -12.43%: Investors were disappointed by the US defense contractor’s financial results. The company had revised its budget for the production of the B-21 bomber upward. As a result, Northrop Grumman posted a pre-tax charge of $477 million.
Thales -7.59%: After a 70% rise since the beginning of the year, the French defense company’s results were received with caution by the market. Although sales exceeded expectations, order intake fell by 27% compared with the same period last year. This is partly attributable to the defense division.
Reckitt -5.64%: The British consumer goods giant disappointed with unexpectedly weak organic growth. Business declined in Europe and North America. The group is currently restructuring its portfolio around its strong brands and plans to sell its Essential Home (household care) division. However, analysts doubt that a buyer will be found.
Dassault Systèmes -0.88%: Despite 5% growth in the first quarter, the business figures were rather disappointing. Given the wait-and-see attitude of customers and the macroeconomic environment, analysts are skeptical about a recovery in the second half of the year. The margin forecast has been revised downward.
Commodities
Energie: Kein Aufwärtstrend für den Ölpreis, der sich diese Woche gegenläufig zu anderen Risikoanlagen entwickelte. Die Preise stehen aufgrund der Besorgnis über eine mögliche Überproduktion der OPEC+ und ihrer Mitglieder unter Druck. Interne Kontroversen, die insbesondere durch Kasachstan geschürt werden, das seine Förderquoten überschreitet, führen zu Diskussionen über eine mögliche Angebotsausweitung. Diese könnte eine Situation weiter verschärfen, die sich bereits jetzt infolge stagnierender oder sinkender Nachfrageprognosen als sehr fragil erweist. Die OPEC hat ihre Prognose für das Wachstum der weltweiten Nachfrage im Jahr 2025 nach unten korrigiert und diesen Schritt unter anderem mit den Handelsspannungen und den US-Zöllen begründet. Des Weiteren könnten mögliche Fortschritte bei den Atomverhandlungen zwischen den USA und dem Iran das Ölangebot auf dem Markt erhöhen und damit den Risikoaufschlag aufgrund der geopolitischen Spannungen verringern. Im Hintergrund könnten Gespräche über eine Lockerung der Zölle zwischen den USA und China die Nachfrage ankurbeln, denn die beiden Länder importieren weltweit die größten Rohölmengen. Der aktuelle Preisrückgang spiegelt jedoch die anhaltende Besorgnis über eine weltweite Konjunkturabschwächung und ein potenzielles Überangebot wider. Die Ölpreise bewegen sich daher nach unten: Rohöl der Sorte Brent kostet derzeit 64,75 USD je Barrel, während sein US-Pendant WTI zuletzt mit 61,90 USD je Fass gehandelt wurde.
Metalle: Kupfer erholte sich in London auf 9.382 USD (Spotpreis), getragen von der Hoffnung auf einen Abbau der Handelsspannungen zwischen den USA und China. Allerdings trugen die Unsicherheiten hinsichtlich der Nachfrage sowie der stärkere US-Dollar zu einem erneuten Preisrückgang zum Wochenschluss bei. Gold erreichte diese Woche einen neuen Höchststand und stieg kurzzeitig auf 3.500 USD je Feinunze. Das Edelmetall reagierte damit offenbar auf die Drohung Donald Trumps, den Präsidenten der US-Notenbank Fed abzusetzen. In der Folge gewann die Nachfrage nach dem sicheren Hafen an Dynamik. Obwohl der Preis nach einer Beruhigung der Handelsspannungen und der Position der Fed leicht nachgab, ist Gold seit Jahresbeginn dennoch um 25% gestiegen – dank der Mittelzuflüsse in Gold-ETFs und der verstärkten Käufe der Zentralbanken.
Agrarprodukte: An der Börse in Chicago sank der Weizenpreis auf 546 Cent je Scheffel. Die Niederschläge in den USA trugen dazu bei, die Sorgen über die Anbaubedingungen zu zerstreuen. In Europa senkte die Europäische Kommission zwar ihre Prognose für die Weizenproduktion für 2025/26 auf 126,3 Millionen Tonnen, hob die Schätzung der Bestände für denselben Zeitraum jedoch auf 8,5 Millionen Tonnen an. Die Preise für Kaffee und Kakao sind in den letzten fünf Tagen dank der starken Nachfrage der Verbraucher nach Kaffee- und Kakaoprodukten kräftig gestiegen (um rund 11% bzw. 9%).
Macroeconomics
Market sentiment: Things remain tense. The tariff dispute continues to dominate financial market developments with its abrupt twists and turns. Given the easing of tensions between the US and China, the major global indices performed well. The situation was different for bond yields, where there were few signs of easing despite Trump’s conciliatory remarks. Investor confidence in US dollar-denominated assets has been severely shaken, and risk assets are unlikely to make a comeback until international trade has demonstrably normalized.
On Friday, the euro was trading at USD 1.338, while the EUR/CHF exchange rate stood at 0.9421.
The yield on ten-year US government bonds was around 4.274%. The VIX fell to 26.7 points, its lowest level since the beginning of April.
Cryptocurrencies
At the regulatory level, there is a wind of change blowing from Washington. US banking regulators, including the Federal Reserve, have quietly withdrawn several directives urging caution regarding banks’ involvement in cryptocurrencies. These measures are in line with the Trump administration’s crypto-friendly stance. This gives the industry some breathing space while the debate about the systemic risks that such investments may still pose flares up again.
Meanwhile, continental Europe is viewing this development with skepticism. In Switzerland, the National Bank categorically refuses to add Bitcoin to its reserves. Despite an ongoing campaign for a referendum and pressure from activists who tout Bitcoin as an alternative in light of geopolitical tensions, the SNB is sticking to its position.
However, this did not prevent Bitcoin from climbing to around USD 94,000 at the end of the week (+10% compared to last Sunday). In contrast, the cryptocurrency $Trump crashed – despite an invitation to an exclusive gala dinner for the biggest buyers. Nothing is lost, it just changes.
Outlook
The tide has turned on the financial markets. Since Tuesday, stock markets have regained some momentum. There are numerous reasons for this: hopes for a resumption of trade negotiations, a decline in volatility, falling bond yields due to the Fed’s expected interest rate move, solid economic indicators, and robust corporate results overall. The balance remains fragile, but the recovery is holding up.
The coming week will be packed with economic indicators. On Wednesday, the first figures for growth in Germany, France, and the eurozone in the first quarter will be published. In addition, the inflation rate in Germany for April (flash estimate) and the US consumer price index for March are on the agenda. On Thursday, the Bank of Japan is expected to announce that it will leave interest rates unchanged. The busy schedule will conclude on Friday with the monthly US labor market data.
The reporting season is in full swing for companies. In Europe: Schneider, Novartis, Airbus, TotalEnergies, and UBS. In the US: Visa, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and Eli Lilly, to name just a few of the big names.
Bitcoin | Gold
The path to freedom
Dr. Udo Amend, a renowned expert in the fields of cryptography and finance, has been working intensively on these topics for decades. With his extensive knowledge and experience, he sheds light on the fascinating connections between Bitcoin and gold in his book “Bitcoin | Gold – The Path to Freedom”.
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