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Global Markets Sunday News
Oppressive speculative bubble
Risk aversion returned to the financial markets this week as market participants suddenly realized that technology stocks may be highly overvalued. At the same time, uncertainty remains about the course the US Federal Reserve will take and how well the US economy is really doing. In addition, most economic data is still pending due to the government shutdown. With the next corporate results due in the coming trading days, volatility is likely to continue.
Tops of the week
Rivian Automotive +12.23%: Before the US government’s tax break expired, the US electric car manufacturer recorded a sharp increase in deliveries. The group was able to reduce its losses and has confirmed the market launch of its R2 SUV, planned for next year. In addition, the company wants to diversify its business and announced the establishment of a subsidiary for industrial robotics for this purpose.
Vestas +14.89%: The Danish wind turbine manufacturer has raised its revenue forecast for the fiscal year. In addition, the company is planning a share buyback program worth EUR 150 million.
Idexx Laboratories +12.54%: The veterinary diagnostics specialist has revised its outlook for the full year upwards. Although visits to veterinary practices have declined slightly, customers continue to spend a lot of money on their pets’ health. Demand for diagnostic equipment and software services is high. Next year, the company plans to expand its range of cancer screening diagnostics for dogs.
BMW +6.71%: The German carmaker continues to perform well. In the past quarter, the operating margin exceeded expectations due to lower costs.
Geberit +6.24%: The leading Swiss sanitary products company in Europe published impressive results this week. The increase in sales is primarily due to high demand for new products.
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena +2,25 %: Die von der großen italienischen Bank veröffentlichten Zahlen übertrafen die Erwartungen. Dank der Übernahme von Mediobanca sind auch die Geschäftsaussichten solide.
Flops of the week
Celsius -31.06%: The energy drink brand recorded strong sales growth and increased its profitability despite higher production costs. However, this strong performance is already priced into the valuation. Investors had expected better figures.
Doordash -19.68%: The California-based food delivery service’s expenses have risen too sharply. The company plans to invest heavily in the coming year to accelerate its international expansion, expand its artificial intelligence platform, and further develop autonomous delivery. Financing these projects will inevitably reduce margins, at least in the short term.
Axon Enterprise -17.72%: The US security technology provider is suffering from the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Axon also announced the acquisition of the Carbyne emergency platform, which provides technology for law enforcement agencies.
Pinterest -18.16%: The social media platform is struggling with competition from online advertising giants and declining corporate marketing budgets. Although the number of users continues to grow, monetization of new subscribers remains limited. The company is also finding it difficult to capitalize on advances in artificial intelligence.
Telefonica -16.69%: The Spanish telecommunications giant has presented its strategic plan: it wants to reduce debt and refocus on its core markets in Europe and Brazil. To strengthen its financial position, the group has sold unprofitable Latin American subsidiaries and cut its dividend. In addition, earnings were impacted by write-downs and slowing growth.
Legrand -13.14%: The electrical infrastructure provider is benefiting in particular in North America from the demand triggered by the construction of data centers. However, the economic downturn in Europe had a negative impact overall, which also left its mark on valuation levels. Nevertheless, the company is sticking to its original targets for the fiscal year.
International Consolidated Airlines -12.37%: The parent company of British Airways and Iberia suffered from the decline in tourist air traffic to the United States and price pressure in Europe. However, demand remains high and bookings are encouraging for the year-end rush. The company continues to invest in the customer experience and onboard connectivity. The price setback should be viewed against the backdrop of the positive development in recent months.
Siemens Healthineers -10.87%: The fourth quarter was disappointing for the medical technology manufacturer. Growth slowed compared to the start of the fiscal year. Profits were reduced by tariffs. To counteract this, the company plans to implement price increases, exercise stricter cost discipline, and adjust the value chain. However, these promises for the future were not enough for investors.
Novo Nordisk -7.83%: The Norwegian pharmaceutical company, which focuses on antidiabetic and obesity drugs, has reached an agreement with the United States to reduce the prices of its weight loss products. In addition, the company revised its forecasts for the year as a whole downward due to intense competition, the burden of tariffs, and restructuring costs. Analysts were divided on this move. In addition, competition with Lilly is intensifying, particularly in India.
Waw materials
Energie: Mit Blick auf ein mögliches Überangebot im kommenden Jahr entwickeln sich die Ölpreise weiterhin rückläufig. Die OPEC+ hat für Dezember eine Steigerung der Fördermenge um 137.000 Barrel pro Tag angekündigt, eine weitere Erhöhung für das 1. Quartal 2026 jedoch ausgeschlossen. Auch der Rückgang der Verkaufspreise, die Saudi-Arabien auf den asiatischen Märkten erzielt, zeugt von einem gut versorgten Markt. Zum Preisdruck tragen noch weitere Faktoren bei, so der anhaltende Government Shutdown in den USA, der sich auf die Wirtschaftstätigkeit auswirkt und die Nachfrage nach bestimmten Erdölprodukten wie Kerosin sinken lässt. Auch die gegen Russland verhängten Sanktionen fördern nach wie vor die uneinheitliche Marktentwicklung. Kaum abzuschätzen ist, inwieweit diese Maßnahmen die Öllieferungen Russlands an seine wichtigsten Abnehmer – insbesondere China und Indien – beeinträchtigen könnten. Rohöl der Sorte Brent notierte zuletzt bei ca. 66,80 USD, die US-Referenzsorte WTI bei 62,60 USD je Barrel.
Metals: The price of copper (3-month futures) fell to USD 10,682 in London this week. Despite the sharp rise in prices so far this year, the outlook for demand is clouding over with a disappointing purchasing managers’ index for China’s manufacturing sector. The market is therefore taking a breather in anticipation of the next economic indicators from China and possible interest rate decisions by the US Federal Reserve. Gold has gained some ground and is hovering around the USD 4,000 mark. The budget freeze in the US and the decline in stock market prices are having a certain price-supporting effect on the yellow precious metal. In this climate of uncertainty, gold is considered a safe haven among investors. In addition, the US labor market weakened in October, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate cut, which is estimated at 67% for December. This makes gold even more attractive.
Agricultural commodities: Prices for wheat, corn, and soybeans declined in Chicago this week. Initial hopes following China’s suspension of certain tariffs were dampened by the fact that Chinese imports remained limited. The price of a bushel of wheat (December 2025 contract) fell slightly to 531 US cents. The same applies to corn, which is now trading at 428 US cents.
Macroeconomics
Market sentiment: Despite positive seasonal effects and earnings reports that were generally above expectations, international stock markets have had a tough week. The slide in market prices can largely be explained by the Fed striking a less dovish tone than expected. In addition, productivity gains (and thus higher profits) from investments in AI are still a long way off. However, we should not throw the baby out with the bathwater, especially since the US market has been moving in virtually one direction since mid-April, namely upwards, with a few consolidation phases of no more than 4%. We will therefore closely monitor the performance of the S&P 500 at 6,700/6,690. If these levels do not hold, this could be the start of a stronger consolidation. As far as bond yields are concerned, 10-year bonds are currently encountering resistance between 4.14% and 4.24%. The same applies to the dollar index, which has not managed to break through the 100.25 mark.
Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the symbolic threshold of $100,000 this week. This decline of almost 10% dragged the entire market down with it, as is often the case. Ether (ETH), the second-highest-valued cryptocurrency, fell by more than 17% and approached the $3,000 mark. Solana (SOL) lost nearly 20% and was last trading at around $150. Overall, the crypto market lost nearly $400 billion in value this week. But why? The downward trend observed can largely be explained by investor risk aversion, which is affecting cryptocurrencies in particular, and a slightly deteriorating economic environment. This new development shows that cryptocurrencies remain very sensitive to macroeconomic trends and that their price performance continues to correlate closely with that of technology stocks. The Nasdaq serves as a benchmark in this regard. The narrative of increasing acceptance exposes them to the same headwinds: as long as risk appetite in the market does not increase significantly again, the volatility of cryptocurrencies will exacerbate the turbulence on the stock markets.
Outlook
The debate surrounding the AI-driven speculative bubble caused some nervousness among investors last week. Due to the ongoing budget freeze in the US, no significant economic data could be published. The announcement of the inflation rate for October, which was actually due on Thursday, will therefore probably be canceled. In Europe, the ZEW index on the sentiment of German financial experts (Tuesday) and UK GDP for the third quarter (Thursday) are the two key events of the week. In terms of corporate results, next week will see figures from Chinese tech stars (Alibaba, Tencent, Netease, SMIC), US companies with AI potential (CoreWeave, Applied Materials, etc.) and several European large caps (Infineon, Siemens, Richemont, Allianz, etc.).
S&P 500 Heatmap
S&P 500 performance in 2025
U.S. bond yield
2-year US bond yield
10-year US bond yield
Correlation between the price of gold and the US dollar
