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Global Markets Sunday News
Shutdown? What shutdown?
Most financial markets rose significantly this week, despite the government shutdown in the US on Wednesday due to a failure to reach agreement on the federal budget. Wall Street remained on a high, still buoyed by technology stocks and expectations that the Fed will soon cut interest rates. In Europe, numerous indices soared to new record highs, including the Euro Stoxx 50, the FTSE 100, the AEX, the IBEX 35, and the PSI 20. Ten days before the start of the quarterly reporting season, risk appetite remains unbroken.
Tops of the week
UCB +27.98%: Companies in the global pharmaceutical industry unanimously welcomed the terms of the first agreement concluded between the US government and Pfizer. This is considered a blueprint for further agreements. The negotiated compromise is not as unfavorable as initially assumed. Previously, there had been fears of massive tariffs and forced price reductions. This week, several pharmaceutical and medical technology manufacturers recorded share price gains of over 10%. These included AstraZeneca and Zealand Pharma, as well as Roche and Merck KGaA.
Salzgitter +27.48%: The steel industry is extremely cyclical. The European Commission’s announcement that it will tighten measures against cheap imports is currently having a positive effect. Brussels wants to almost halve the duty-free ceiling for steel imports and raise tariffs on quantities exceeding this ceiling to up to 50%. Competitors SSAB, ArcelorMittal, and Aperam also benefited from the announcement.
Fincantieri +22.51%: Cyclical industrial stocks from Europe had a good week. The decisive factor here was renewed investor interest in cyclical stocks. The prospect of further cuts in key interest rates in the US and the enormous investments associated with AI are fueling optimism about global momentum. This development also benefited Hochtief, Hensoldt, Siltronic, Volvo Cars, and Soitec.
JD Sports +16.07%: The sportswear and sneaker retailer followed closely in the footsteps of its supplier Nike. Nike’s quarterly figures reassured investors, even though they were not exactly spectacular.
Stellantis +14.1%: According to Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois, the European carmaker expanded its market share in the United States in the third quarter of 2025 at a rate not seen in five quarters. The resulting strong business momentum is giving a boost to Stellantis brands Jeep, Dodge, and Chrysler in particular. This development could herald a turnaround for the company, whose share price has fallen by more than 30% since the beginning of the year.
Merus +36.87%: Danish company Genmab has acquired the Nasdaq-listed Dutch biotech company for a purchase price of USD 8 billion in cash (USD 97 per share). Merus is developing a drug for the treatment of head and neck cancer (petosemtamab), which is currently in Phase III clinical trials and could be launched in 2027.
Western Digital +22.86%: Western Digital is also benefiting from the promising business environment for storage manufacturers thanks to the dynamic development of the AI sector. Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its positive assessment of the stock and raised its price target dramatically from $99 to $171.
Robinhood +22.08%: One of the stock market stars of the year, the broker continues to benefit from investor enthusiasm, even though its share price has already risen 250% this year. Last weekend, the company’s CEO announced that Robinhood had begun testing fully digital banking services for a limited group of customers.
Fair Isaac +21.85%: The stock took off on Thursday after the company announced a new licensing model. According to this model, mortgage-related FICO scores will in future be made available directly to resellers, thereby bypassing the intermediary role of credit bureaus – a blow to competitors Equifax and Experian in particular.
Flops of the week
Tate & Lyle -18.82%: Although recent months had given cause for hope of improvement, the British food ingredients manufacturer ultimately failed to impress. The transformative acquisition of CP Kelco has not yet yielded any synergies. Added to this is the difficult market environment in North America and Europe. As a result, the company revised its fiscal year outlook downward.
Equasens -8.88%: The developer of pharmacy software has published its half-year figures. These showed a positive development, but one that was insufficient from an investor’s perspective. For four years now, the market has been questioning the growth potential of the solutions offered by the company.
Lufthansa -5.32%: Following the failure of negotiations on the company pension scheme, the majority of pilots at the German airline voted in favor of strike action. This is a further burden for the company, which is already implementing a comprehensive cost-cutting and restructuring program.
DraftKings -16.42%: The US provider of sports betting and fantasy sports is struggling with intense competition from rivals such as Robinhood and Kalshi. The latter company in particular is experiencing dynamic growth thanks to high betting stakes.
Rivian -12.44%: Following the cancellation of a $7,500 tax break by the US government, the electric car manufacturer revised its delivery target downwards. Furthermore, Amazon has begun testing GM electric vans on a small scale. This is raising concerns about future cooperation with Rivian. Amazon currently remains Volkswagen’s largest shareholder.
MercadoLibre -11.98%: Amazon is planning further expansion in Brazil, a market where MercadoLibre generates more than half of its revenue. Competition in South American online retail is becoming increasingly intense.
Exxon Mobil -3.38%: The US oil and gas company announced on Tuesday that it would be cutting 2,000 jobs worldwide. Other competitors had already published similar announcements. Falling oil prices are forcing companies to take cost-cutting measures.
Commodities
Energy: Oil prices continue to fall and have now reached their lowest levels in five months. Brent crude from the North Sea is now trading at just USD 64 (delivery in December 2025), while its US counterpart, WTI, has fallen to USD 60.5. This decline has been triggered by speculation about a possible further increase in production by OPEC+ of 137,000 barrels per day in November. Saudi Arabia and Russia, as leading members of the alliance, will meet this weekend to finalize the decision on the increase. Although the expanded oil alliance is having difficulty meeting production quotas, there could be an oversupply on the world market. The International Energy Agency is forecasting a record surplus for the coming year. Geopolitics is also an important factor with a significant impact on crude oil prices. This is illustrated, for example, by Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries far behind the front line.
Metals: The price of gold broke through the USD 3,800 per troy ounce mark for the first time and climbed to a high of USD 3,897. In the short term, this unchecked upward trend is being supported by uncertainties surrounding the shutdown in the US and hopes of further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Since the beginning of the year, the price of gold has risen by 47%. This impressive performance is attributable to purchases by central banks, growing interest in ETFs, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Copper also continued to rise in price in London. The three-month contract on the London Metal Exchange is currently trading at USD 10,490 per ton. This increase is due to supply disruptions, mainly in Indonesia and Chile.
Agricultural commodities: The decline in grain prices in Chicago, which has been observed for some time, continued. Corn and wheat contracts ended the week down, with corn at 420 cents per bushel and wheat at 513 cents (contracts maturing in December 2025). The price of soybeans continues to suffer from the trade war with China, which is now sourcing soybeans from other regions. Favorable weather conditions led to good corn and wheat harvests in the US, which put pressure on prices. In its latest report, the US Department of Agriculture highlighted a decline in corn stocks compared to the previous year. However, these are likely to be replenished by the expected record harvest.
Macroeconomics
Market sentiment: The labor market report is usually published on the first Friday of the month. But this year, investors waited in vain. With the shutdown paralyzing US authorities, there are no current figures available. For the time being, market participants are therefore focusing on other data to get an idea of the labor market. The employment figures from the personnel service provider ADP clearly signal a slowdown. This caused bond yields to fall due to the expected renewed monetary easing. Two-year US government bonds nevertheless remained above the important support line of 3.50%. Regardless, the S&P 500 continues to rush from one historic record to the next. Investors should note that gold is now overbought, while the dollar index remains above 96.20 points. Given the correlation between the two markets, we will closely monitor the performance of the US currency to avoid any unpleasant surprises with gold.
Cryptocurrencies: Statistically speaking, September is the weakest month for Bitcoin (BTC): over the last twelve years, the average return has been -3.08%. This year, however, the cryptocurrency defied all forecasts and rose by 5.38%. October, on the other hand, has always proven to be a strong month from a statistical point of view: with an average price increase of 20.63% since 2012, it ranks second for BTC after November with an average of +46%. Consequently, October got off to a flying start: Within a few days, BTC gained 5.5% and once again surpassed the $120,000 mark. This puts it just $4,500 below its all-time high reached in August. This week’s rise is mainly thanks to BlackRock, as the company’s Global Allocation Fund has expanded its BTC position by 38%. The US investment giant now holds $66.4 million through its IBIT ETF, which corresponds to an allocation of 0.4% of the $17.1 billion fund assets (Q1: 0.25%). Reason enough to further fuel the enthusiasm of crypto investors. The other major cryptocurrencies also got off to a flying start in October: Ether (ETH) rose 8% to approach the $4,500 mark, Solana (SOL) rose 10% to $230, and XRP rose 6.5% to around $3 again.
Outlook
The budget freeze in the US is the latest bombshell in Donald Trump’s presidency. However, the stock markets continued to trend upward. Next week is likely to remain quiet in terms of corporate earnings, but significantly more data is expected thereafter.
From a macroeconomic perspective, it will probably be some time before the official US figures are published due to the shutdown. However, there are no important leading indicators on the horizon. Some Fed officials will be speaking out. The freeze on federal spending should not prevent them from providing useful information to investors. Investors are still expecting another interest rate cut on October 29.
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