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Global Markets Sunday News
Hard-to-digest TACO
The financial markets were nervous and had been slumping since the beginning of the week, as the US government had threatened new tariffs on Europe due to the lack of agreement on Greenland. The trend then reversed somewhat after Donald Trump toned down his rhetoric in Davos, withdrew the tariff threats, and ruled out any use of force. Although the situation has calmed down, uncertainty remains and the future development of the indices remains unclear.
Tops of the week
Beazley +40,49 %: The British insurer has rejected a second takeover bid from Swiss company Zurich Insurance. Zurich initially offered GBX 1,230 and then GBX 1,280 per share. Management unanimously considers the offer to be too low.
Wise +17,12 %: According to the fintech company, profits in fiscal year 2026 are expected to be at the upper end of the forecast range. Bank of America subsequently raised its price target to GBX 1,125 and continues to issue a buy recommendation.
SanDisk +14,56 %: The memory solutions provider’s stock gained ground after several research firms raised their price targets. The market considers the business figures and outlook to be solid. The figures confirm improved fundamentals for NAND flash memory technology. According to analysts, demand is likely to exceed supply from 2026 onwards. The main factors driving this are generative AI, disciplined capacity management, and a significant expansion in margins.
Hecla Mining +19,86 %: The largest US silver producer benefited from the rally in precious metal prices, on which the company is heavily dependent. Increasing purchases of mining stocks also reinforced the upward momentum.
D’Ieteren +14,04 %: The Belgian group is benefiting from rumors of an IPO for its subsidiary Belron. In addition, Jefferies has raised its recommendation from neutral to buy and adjusted its target price upward from EUR 185 to EUR 215.
Bayer +40,49 %: The United States Supreme Court has agreed to hear the Durnell case concerning Roundup. Bayer had requested the court to rule that the company had complied with federal regulations. In Bayer’s view, this prevents US states from taking a different position.
Barry Callebaut +40,49 %: The market rewarded the chocolate manufacturer for improving its earnings despite declining sales volumes. The stock also benefited from Vontobel raising its recommendation from hold to buy and increasing its price target from CHF 1,150 to CHF 1,500.
Flops of the week
Ubisoft -40,49 %: Things are not going well for the video game developer at the moment. Its share price plummeted after another profit warning and the discontinuation of several games in development. A solid financial position is unlikely to be achievable again until the medium term.
Carl Zeiss Meditec -40,49 %: Cold shower for shareholders after a warning regarding targets for 2025/2026: The stock fell to a 10-year low, and the outlook for the sector has been deteriorating steadily since the coronavirus-induced boom.
Wacker Neuson -21,93 %: Doosan Bobcat has called off its takeover of the German construction machinery manufacturer, meaning that the previously priced speculative premium has now disappeared. The South Korean group had been negotiating a deal for several weeks.
Abbott -11,78 %: After the quarterly figures were deemed disappointing, the share price of the healthcare and medical technology group declined. Sales fell short of expectations, particularly in the nutrition segment, and the outlook for the first quarter was weaker than anticipated.
AeroVironment -21,66 %: The defense contractor, which focuses on drones, suffered a sharp drop in its share price after the US Department of Defense ordered a temporary halt to work on the BADGER program. This unexpected interruption raises fears of a revenue shift in 2026, despite the fact that the group expects the contract to be renegotiated and continues to view the long-term outlook as favorable.
Danone -10,47 %: Following a recall of two infant milk products in Singapore (one from Nestlé and the other from Danone), the food company’s share price fell this week. Investors still remember well that the Swiss company’s shares suffered from a similar incident not so long ago.
Vusion -4.82%: The company had already been affected by aggressive short sellers. Now, Vusion appears to be facing difficulties due to what one analyst has termed the “2027 cliff”: The question arises as to whether sales can be maintained at the same level after the completion of the major Walmart contract. This concern is exacerbated by increasing competition, even though Vusion intends to strengthen existing contracts with complementary technology components.
Waw materials
Energie: The oil price continues to fluctuate between oversupply and geopolitical tensions. This has resulted in a rollercoaster ride – not least due to the nervousness of financial market participants, who are concerned about oversupply on the one hand and geopolitical tensions on the other. The crude oil markets were therefore rather volatile at the end of the week. North Sea Brent crude was last trading at around USD 65.80 per barrel, while its US counterpart WTI was trading at around USD 61 per barrel. The threat of US military intervention in Iran and the deployment of warships to the region are once again fueling fears of possible supply chain disruptions in the Middle East. However, the tensions are masking a fundamentally downward trend, as prices had already fallen on Thursday following the release of US crude oil inventory figures. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an unexpected increase in oil stocks of 3.6 million barrels and gasoline stocks of 6 million barrels. Both figures point to weakening demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its demand forecast for 2026 upwards, but still expects a market with a high structural surplus. In contrast, natural gas prices skyrocketed in Europe and the US: In view of the severe cold wave sweeping across the United States and now reaching Texas, demand for
Metals: Gold, silver, and platinum reached new highs due to investors’ loss of confidence in US assets and the depreciation of the US dollar. The price of gold hit a record high of $4,967 and is approaching the psychological mark of $5,000. The precious metal has gained 15% since the beginning of 2026. In view of this momentum, analysts are revising their targets: Goldman Sachs now forecasts a price of $5,400 by the end of the year. Other precious metals are following the trend. Physical silver is trading at $98.62 per troy ounce, approaching the $100 mark. With a 38% increase since January 1, silver is even outshining the price of gold! Platinum also reached a record high of $2,691 per ounce (+27% in 2026). The price of copper in London is robust at $12,921. Supply is limited due to a strike at the Mantoverde mine in Chile.
Agricultural commodities: Grain prices in Chicago are on the rise again. They are being supported by the weak dollar (which makes US exports more competitive) and weather risks. Although a winter storm is bringing moisture to the fields, the accompanying freezing temperatures could have a negative impact on yields. The price of wheat rose to 520 cents (contract maturing in March 2026). The price of cocoa, on the other hand, is falling and is undergoing a significant correction. After the price explosion in early 2024, prices fell this week to their lowest level in two years. This reversal is due to oversupply and a decline in consumption.
Macroeconomics
Market sentiment: Multiple backtracking. Many observers believe that the US president has once again backtracked on Greenland after once again pulling out his favorite weapon: tariffs. However, that would be a superficial view. As always, Donald Trump first pulls out a bazooka to emphasize outrageous demands. He then focuses on de-escalation in order to extract concessions: in this specific case, an extension of American rights to their military bases, the preservation of long-term access corridors, and access to Greenland’s mineral resources. Now that volatility has peaked, everything is back to normal and there is good news. US GDP growth for the third quarter was revised upward to +4.40%, while +5.4% is expected for the fourth quarter. Inflation, as measured by the core consumer price index (PCE Core), fell by 0.1 points to +2.7% compared to the previous year. These are good signs for an upward trend in the stock indices.
Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin lost 4.43% this week, falling below the $90,000 threshold. Since November, it had been trading in a range between $85,000 and $95,000 against the backdrop of an uncertain macroeconomic environment marked by Donald Trump’s erratic statements on economic and diplomatic issues. This instability has direct consequences for risk assets, with cryptocurrencies at the forefront. The volatility is also reflected in the capital flows of Bitcoin spot ETFs: after the exchange-traded products linked to the BTC price recorded net inflows of $1.4 billion in the previous week, this week saw net outflows of over $1.2 billion. In the absence of positive momentum, Bitcoin is struggling to regain its all-time high of $126,000, which it reached last October. In the wake of Bitcoin, the entire cryptocurrency market declined: Ether (ETH) fell 11% to below $3,000, Solana (SOL) fell 8% to around $126, and XRP fell 4.6% to around $1.9.
Outlook
Investors refer to the strategy of betting on Donald Trump backing down as TACO (which stands for “Trump always chickens out”). But has he really scaled back his claims on Greenland? Or is he just taking a breather so he can come back even stronger? The coming weeks will tell.
What is certain, however, is that two monetary policy decisions will be made on Thursday. No offense to the Bank of Canada, but the decision by the US Federal Reserve will carry more weight. The market expects a 95% probability that the Open Market Committee will maintain the status quo at its third-to-last meeting under Jerome Powell.
In Europe, the stock market heavyweights are publishing their quarterly figures. The results of SAP, ASML, LVMH, and Roche, among others, are eagerly awaited. In the US, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Apple, Visa, Exxon Mobil, and others are presenting their figures.
S&P 500 Heatmap
S&P 500 performance in 2025
U.S. bond yield
2-year US bond yield
10-year US bond yield
Correlation between the price of gold and the US dollar
