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Global Markets Sunday News
Fed creates pre-Christmas mood
Wall Street experienced another surge this week. It was buoyed by disappointing labor market data and an inflation rate in line with expectations. These data reinforced the view that the US Federal Reserve could indeed loosen the interest rate reins next week. In Europe, the markets gained slightly, although political risks and tensions on the bond market acted as a brake. Given the continuing high level of uncertainty, volatility is likely to remain high.
Tops of the week
Oracle +25,51 %: Dank eines mit OpenAI geschlossenen Mega-Vertrages schossen die Auftragseingänge des Datenbank- und Cloud-Riesen in die Höhe. Die daraus entstehenden neuen Perspektiven bieten ungeahnte Wachstumschancen – Oracle gilt nun als unverzichtbarer Akteur im weltweiten Wettlauf um Rechenleistung für generative KI.
Alibaba +14,37 %: Der chinesische E-Commerce-Gigant will seine Position im boomenden KI-Segment in China stärken, insbesondere durch den Einsatz von im eigenen Hause entwickelten Chips.
Anglo American +12,21 %: Der britische Bergbaukonzern gab offiziell die Fusion mit dem kanadischen Unternehmen Teck Resources für 53 Mrd. USD bekannt. Dadurch wird einer der fünf größten Kupferproduzenten weltweit entstehen. Er soll unter dem Namen Anglo Teck firmieren und Synergien in Höhe von jährlich fast 800 Mio. USD erzielen. Die Aktionäre von Anglo werden eine Sonderdividende erhalten.
BAE Systems +11,48 %: Der britische Rüstungskonzern ist eine Kooperation mit Thales eingegangen: Das französische Unternehmen liefert ein Unterwasser-Sonar der neuen Generation nach Großbritannien. Europäische Rüstungswerte profitierten auch von den sich wieder verschärfenden Spannungen, nachdem russische Drohnen Polen ins Visier genommen hatten.
Buzzi +9,76 %: Die Analysten von JPMorgan stuften ihre Empfehlung von Neutral auf Übergewichten hoch und hoben das Kursziel an. Die US-Bank verwies auf die inzwischen besseren Fundamentaldaten der europäischen Zementindustrie und das starke Engagement in Deutschland.
Inditex +9,82 %: Der weltgrößte börsennotierte Fast-Fashion-Einzelhändler geriet aufgrund negativer Wechselkurseffekte im 2. Quartal unter Druck. Das Management zeigt sich jedoch optimistisch, denn die Umsatzerlöse wachsen seit dem letzten Monat wieder zweistellig. Die Anleger setzen auf einen vielversprechenden Jahresausklang.
Flops of the week
Synopsys -28.87%: The chip design software developer disappointed investors with downwardly revised targets. The company is suffering from weakening business in China, which has been affected by US export restrictions, as well as delays in its design IP division, which supplies ready-made components for integrated circuits used in chips. The company’s management has admitted to strategic errors and is seeking to restructure, which will involve cutting 10% of its workforce.
Chewy -18.12%: The online retailer of pet products reported solid quarterly results and raised its outlook for the current fiscal year. Despite this momentum, the group remains cautious for the remainder of the year due to the wait-and-see attitude in the pet market and macroeconomic uncertainties. With a price-earnings ratio of over 70, the valuation level is difficult to justify.
Associated British Foods -11.32%: The owner of Primark presented mixed figures. Growth is progressing in the UK and the US, but is being held back overall by a cautious consumer climate in Europe. In the food division, the ingredients segment performed well, but the sugar business continues to weigh on overall performance due to low prices and the closure of the bioethanol plant near Hull in the UK.
Nexi -11.68%: The Italian payment service provider was punished following an announcement by Barclays. The bank had lowered its price target, citing increasing risks in the domestic market as a result of changes in the industry and competition from new players.
LSEG -6.88%: The operator of the London Stock Exchange continues to suffer from declining subscription revenues, a trend that was already apparent when the quarterly figures were published at the end of July. Nevertheless, demand for data continues to be supported by dynamic developments in the areas of AI, cloud computing, and regulation. New products are likely to have a positive impact in the second half of the year.
Commodities
Energy: Two opposing factors are currently determining the direction of crude oil prices. On the one hand, there is a structural oversupply with corresponding effects on prices. The International Energy Agency has once again highlighted this in its latest report, which predicts a record surplus until 2026. This is mainly due to the renewed increase in supply from OPEC+, which is turning on the oil tap, and slight growth in oil demand, especially in China. On the other hand, geopolitical tensions and the threat of economic sanctions against Russia and buyers of Russian oil are dampening the downward pressure on prices. Moscow is taking its time in negotiations with Ukraine, so the European Union and the US are likely to impose tougher sanctions on Russian oil. Brent crude is trading at around USD 67.50, remaining relatively stable compared to last week. The price of WTI is now around USD 63.40 per barrel.
Metals: Gold made headlines this week as the precious metal continues to soar, constantly setting new records. Gold is benefiting from demand from central banks, including the Chinese central bank. It is continuing to build up its gold reserves in order to diversify its foreign exchange reserves. The prospect of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve is also fueling the gold price, which reached a high of $3,674 this week. The industrial metals segment is also following this upward trend. Copper climbed to its highest price in more than five months, trading at USD 10,068 per tonne (spot price) on the London Metal Exchange. This upward movement is primarily fueled by hopes of interest rate cuts in the US and concerns about production disruptions, particularly in Indonesia and Peru.
Agricultural products: The price of wheat in Chicago remains depressed. The underlying trend continues to point downward due to the large supply. A bushel of wheat currently costs around 518 cents (contract maturing in December 2025). Corn, on the other hand, has risen in price and is now trading at 421 cents (delivery in December 2025).
Macroeconomics
Market sentiment: In the best of all worlds, everything is running perfectly. The stock prices that often fall in September have bucked the trend this year. Given the almost certain interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve next week, seasonality seems to have little effect. However, US labor market data is showing signs of weakness, pushing inflation fears into the background. Within its dual mandate of full employment and inflation control, the Federal Reserve is currently focusing more on the former. After all, it does not want to be perceived as constantly lagging behind developments. Bond yields have already reflected this, with even 10-year US Treasuries declining. However, they are currently testing an important line at 3.50%, which is likely to be difficult to break through directly. So there is no reason to panic for the stock indices, which are rushing from record to record, at least on the other side of the Atlantic. Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on September 17, investors tend to see the glass as half full.
Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC) continued its upward trend from last week, gaining 3.5% since Monday. It is currently trading above $115,000. This price increase is due to massive inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs. Since the beginning of the week, over $1.6 billion has been newly invested in exchange-traded products. This brings the total assets of Bitcoin spot ETFs to $149 billion, or 6.57% of BTC in circulation. Of this, almost 40% is accounted for by IBIT, managed by BlackRock. In contrast, investors are more concerned about companies that have accumulated BTC in their financial assets and developed a genuine corporate strategy based on it. Their share prices have been in free fall for a month. This applies to Strategy (-17%) and Metaplanet (-33%), among others. The other major cryptocurrencies followed BTC closely: Ether (ETH) gained 4.77%, Solana (SOL) climbed 15.5%, and XRP gained 5.7% ground.
Outlook
The excitement leading up to a Fed meeting at which an interest rate cut is to be announced is like waiting for Santa Claus: like spoiled little children, investors can hardly contain their impatience. Everything seems to indicate that the US Federal Reserve will ease its monetary policy on Wednesday. But the market is insatiable and is already wondering what will happen next. This is precisely where the real challenge of the announcement lies. The Bank of England will also have its say, but is unlikely to shake up the status quo. Corporate results, on the other hand, are few and far between, with only a few crumbs left: a morsel of FedEx, a pinch of Exor, a sprinkle of Bolloré.
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