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Global Markets Sunday News
Economic data at last
Some European indices reached new highs this week, while Wall Street remained flat after the end of the longest shutdown in history. The prolonged lack of data is increasing uncertainty about the state of the US economy. At the same time, technology stocks remain highly valued. In addition, the US Federal Reserve could postpone the next interest rate cut if it considers price stability to be more important than the weakness in the labor market.
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
Tops of the week
Swiss stocks: Switzerland has reached a customs agreement with the US government. As a result, shares in export-oriented companies rose. This was particularly true for Swatch, with its Omega and Longines brands, and for Cartier’s parent company Richemont. The US market remains indispensable for these companies.
SSE +19.19%: The British electricity generator has presented its new strategic plan. A key component of this is a large-scale investment program for grid expansion and securing further growth. In addition, the company has raised fresh capital to finance its projects.
Alstom +13.4%: The French rail technology manufacturer can look back on a solid quarter. Its order backlog is benefiting primarily from demand for high-speed trains. The company has raised its organic growth target.
Bayer +9,02 %: The German conglomerate was able to increase its profitability despite the weakening pharmaceuticals division. Bayer shareholders are currently grateful for even the smallest positive news. The absence of unpleasant surprises and the maintenance of targets for the financial year are enough to satisfy them. The company continues to focus on debt reduction and the pending legal disputes surrounding glyphosate.
Siemens Energy +8,55 %: The German energy technology manufacturer has announced its medium-term goals. The stock has been performing brilliantly for two years now and is continuing its upward trend.
Barrick Mining +11,91 %: Despite a decline in production, the North American gold giant is benefiting from precious metal prices. Dividends have been increased, and the share buyback program is also gaining momentum thanks to rapidly rising cash flow generation. Strategically, the company is refocusing on North America while seeking solutions for its activities in Mali.
Flops of the week
Coreweave -25,62 %: The US cloud infrastructure provider has lowered its forecast after a supplier for data centers announced a delivery delay.
3i Group -20,73 %: The shareholders of the British holding company are concerned about its heavy dependence on its stake in Action. Adjusted for floor space, the chain’s sales have recently been weaker. In addition, the market has priced in a valuation correction due to the previously high premium. The environment for private equity deals is also difficult at present.
Strategy -17,43 %: The company, known for its record holdings of Bitcoin, is suffering from the weakness of the cryptocurrency, whose price continues to be sensitive to fluctuations in technology stocks and the economic climate.
Hensoldt -8,18 %: Despite the ambitious medium-term targets announced by the German defense contractor, investors are disappointed with the targets for 2026. Given the stock market rally that the European defense sector has experienced so far this year, even the slightest sign of weakness has consequences.
Edenred -7,34 %: The cap on merchant commissions imposed by the Brazilian government for transactions involving meal vouchers has dealt a severe blow to the company’s business. The restaurant voucher provider announced that it would revise its profit forecast for 2026 downward as a result.
Technology companies -6,86 %: The prolonged government shutdown has caused discontent in the US economy and uncertainty about the future course of monetary policy. Technology stocks such as Oracle, Nvidia, and Palantir are suffering from growing risk aversion among investors.
Waw materials
Energy: Oil prices trended sideways this week with a slight upward movement. The main factors were renewed risk aversion with adverse effects on risk assets, fears of oversupply in the oil markets, and heightened geopolitical tensions following new attacks by Ukraine on an important Russian export port. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has updated its forecasts for the fundamentals. According to these forecasts, the oil market is expected to remain well supplied in the coming years, as global oil supply is likely to increase significantly. In contrast, the IEA expects only a moderate increase in demand, which suggests a significant surplus for the coming year. OPEC also agrees with this assumption, as the cartel also expects a potential supply surplus in 2026 and has revised its previous forecasts towards an oversupply. On a geopolitical level, a drone attack on the port of Novorossiysk in Russia has led to a temporary partial disruption of oil supplies. As a result, the market became concerned about future supply disruptions. Added to this are the US government’s sanctions against Russian oil companies, which are due to come into force shortly and make the situation for the development of Russian exports appear even more complex. Brent crude oil was last trading at around USD 64 per barrel, while the US benchmark WTI was trading at USD 60 per barrel.
Metalle:
Agricultural commodities: Soybeans, corn, and wheat ended the week significantly higher in the US. Soybean prices could recover as China is expected to buy more. Corn prices gained ground in Chicago, rising by 441 cents per bushel. Wheat also rose to 540 cents (contract maturing in December 2025). Arabica coffee prices fell this week after the US decided to lift certain tariffs on coffee from four Latin American countries.
Macroeconomics
Market sentiment: The major indices remained flat this week, even though the government shutdown ended. Investors reacted to the news by selling off, as uncertainty about the Fed’s next monetary policy decisions is growing and a series of quarterly figures caused disappointment despite an overall positive picture. We will have to wait a little longer until the official figures are available and we have more information about the state of the world’s leading economy. The yield on 10-year US government bonds tested a resistance zone around 4.16%, while US small caps (IWM) are currently hitting an important support line at USD 236. Should they slip below this mark, this could herald a stronger consolidation. Seasonality, on the other hand, is likely to favor a rise in stock market prices.
Cryptocurrencies: The weak economy and investor caution continue to weigh heavily on the crypto market. The downward trend is particularly evident in Bitcoin spot ETFs, which saw outflows of over USD 2.5 billion in just 21 days. The downward momentum already seen in the previous week is therefore continuing. Further developments are likely to depend, at least in part, on Nvidia’s financial results. These could act as a catalyst and either calm the markets or further unsettle them. In addition to capital movements, the crypto ecosystem is focusing on two important upcoming events. On the one hand, the announced IPO of Grayscale, one of the largest digital asset managers, is raising a wide range of expectations. On the other hand, investors are hoping for a clear position from the SEC on the regulation of tokens. The recent speech by the head of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Paul Atkins, suggests that the definition of financial securities will soon be clarified – a possible step towards a more reliable regulatory framework for the industry.
Outlook
Now that the shutdown is over, the publication of economic data in the US can finally resume. However, the dates remain unclear, and a flood of figures is unlikely. It will probably take some time for the statistics authorities to resume their activities, as will the rest of the government. However, the White House has announced that the US labor market report for September could be published as early as next week.
At the corporate level, there is more certainty, as Nvidia’s results, expected on Wednesday evening, are likely to be well received by the market, given that valuation levels are gradually becoming a cause for concern. Investors are also focusing their attention on the figures from retailers Walmart, Home Depot, and Target, as these remain important indicators of consumer spending in the United States.
S&P 500 Heatmap
S&P 500 performance in 2025
U.S. bond yield
2-year US bond yield
10-year US bond yield
Correlation between the price of gold and the US dollar
