Global Markets Sunday News
Wall Street posts a loss for the fifth week in a row
Highs & Lows of the Week
Tops / Europe
Lanxess +51,59 %: The chemical company, which specializes in additives, is benefiting from the fact that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is crippling its Asian competitors. This allows it to impose massive price increases. The crisis is also benefiting the chemical distributor IMCD (+21.01%) and the specialty chemicals supplier Arkema (+15.25%).
Puig +13,77 %: Merger talks with Estée Lauder are sending the stock price of the Spanish manufacturer of high-end perfumes and cosmetics soaring. If the two companies join forces, they could become a serious competitor to L’Oréal in the luxury perfume segment.
Technip Energies +8,37 %: The Iranian attacks on the Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas plant in Qatar are indirectly benefiting the plant builder. Technip Energies is one of the leading providers in the market for liquefaction plants there and is thus in pole position for the upcoming reconstruction.
Galderma +5,28 %: Things started looking up for the Swiss dermatology specialist after the FDA approved Restylane Contour for use in the temporal region. The product can be used to correct facial volume loss, a condition affecting an increasing number of people due to the widespread use of weight-loss medications
Flops / Europe
Valneva -39,4 %: The French pharmaceutical company’s stock price plummeted after its Lyme disease vaccine failed to meet the primary endpoint in clinical trials. While the vaccine was shown to be effective, its efficacy was lower than expected.
Exail -23,14 %: The fact that shareholder Gorgé sold 600,000 shares of the company in a flash sale at a 9% discount put pressure on the French technology group, which specializes in robotics applications for civilian and military purposes.
Boliden -13,39 %: In a press release, the mining company announced that production at the Garpenberg mine would resume following the production halt, but would be significantly scaled back. As a result, EBITDA for the first quarter will be approximately SEK 400 million lower.
Edenred -12,59 %: The French payment service provider saw its stock price drop after it was reported that the Italian competition authority, AGCM, had launched an investigation into allegations of abuse of a dominant market position. The company is accused of imposing disproportionately high costs on major retail chains.
Hapag-Lloyd -21,86 %: The container shipping company saw its share price fall after estimating that the additional costs resulting from the crisis in Iran amounted to $40 million to $50 million per week. Higher fuel costs and insurance premiums, as well as costly temporary storage, are weighing heavily on the business. Revenue and net income for the fiscal year fell significantly compared to the previous year.
Tops / USA
AVIS Budget +48,6 %: Es geht doch nichts über einen Mietwagen, wenn man sich den ständigen Störungen an den Flughäfen entziehen will. So sehen es jedenfalls die Anleger und sorgten damit sowohl bei Avis als auch bei Hertz (+20%) für deutliche Kursgewinne.
Brown-Forman +19,25 %: The spirits manufacturer is exploring the possibility of a merger in talks with its French competitor, Pernod Ricard. The idea was well received by investors given the difficult market conditions and declining sales figures.
Flops / USA
Estée Lauder -21,75 %: While Puig stands to benefit from the U.S. company’s acquisition plans, the market fears that, as far as Estée Lauder is concerned, a costly transaction could cause the Americans to deviate from their current cost-cutting measures.
Micron Technology -15,53 %: The memory chip sector struggled after Google announced a new technology that is expected to reduce the storage requirements for AI models, particularly during inference. Sandisk fell 15%, while Western Digital Corporation dropped 6% due to its lower dependence on this business segment.
Raw materials
Energy
U.S. President Donald Trump has extended his deadline for a military strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days and set a new ultimatum for April 6. However, this has done little to slow the rise in crude oil prices. Brent crude from the North Sea is currently trading at around $105 per barrel, while the U.S. benchmark WTI is at approximately $97. These prices include a high risk premium, which is likely to remain in place for the time being given the difficult diplomatic situation. The U.S. has presented a 15-point plan to end the conflict, which Tehran countered with its own demands (security guarantees and recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz). The risk of military escalation remains high. Washington is currently sending thousands of additional troops to the Middle East. Furthermore, Donald Trump is considering deploying ground troops to bring the island of Kharg—which is crucial for Iranian oil exports—under his control. Since the start of the war, the price of Brent crude has risen by 50%.
Metals
Despite geopolitical tensions, gold is on a downward trend. The price of a troy ounce of gold has fallen below the $4,500 mark again. High oil prices are fueling fears of persistent inflation. As a result, the markets expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to hold off on cutting its key interest rates for the time being. However, when interest rates are high, gold loses its appeal because the precious metal does not generate a return. We are seeing a similar trend with copper: the red metal has dropped by about 7% since the start of the month. Investors fear that high energy prices and high interest rates could slow global economic growth, leading to a decline in demand for industrial metals. In London, the price for a ton of copper stood at $12,174 (spot price).
Agricultural commodities
Grains ended the week on an overall positive note. The price of a bushel of wheat climbed to 607 cents, while corn and soybean prices rose to 469 and 1,176 cents per bushel, respectively (contracts maturing in May 2026). Corn and soybeans are used to produce biofuel. As a result, their price movements correlate with the oil market.
Macroeconomics
Market sentiment
Peace requires more than just tweets. The diplomatic rapprochement between the U.S. and Iran appears, to date, to be far from sufficient to bring about a peace agreement. Further bloodshed is therefore to be feared in order to force the parties to negotiate. The main points of contention are control of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs. This stalemate is causing uncertainty and fueling the current volatility, although the weak trading volumes on the stock market indicate that market participants are adopting a wait-and-see attitude. The price of gold is slowly stabilizing after having completely lost the gains it had made since the start of the year. Yields on French and German government bonds have climbed above their 2023 highs, which reduces the room for maneuver for the governments of both countries. And that is likely just the beginning.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin continued the downward trend it began last week, falling another 2% to around $66,500 (previous week: -7%). Aside from the alarming geopolitical environment, the U.S. crypto sector suffered yet another setback. The U.S. draft bill for the CLARITY Act, which aims to clarify the regulatory framework for digital assets, has been revised. The new draft prohibits both direct and indirect returns on passive stablecoin holdings. In other words, regulatory transparency in the sector is likely to increase. At the same time, however, stablecoins would lose a significant portion of their appeal compared to bank deposits. Consequently, Circle, the major issuer of the USDC stablecoin, plummeted by 20% this week. The company generates a significant portion of its revenue from reserves that back the stablecoin. These are primarily invested in U.S. Treasury bonds. Therefore, the core of the business model is not directly affected. On the other hand, the company had heavily relied on offering returns on stablecoin holdings—a model comparable to an interest-bearing checking account—to attract new customers. But that plan now seems a distant prospect. Bitcoin dragged other major cryptocurrencies down with it: Ether (ETH) fell 3.31% below the $2,000 mark, Solana (SOL) dropped 3.67% to around $83, and XRP fell 3.39% to a level in the $1.33 range.
Outlook
The New York Stock Exchange has just experienced five consecutive weeks of losses—something that hasn’t happened since May 2022. Investors are watching oil prices more closely than they have in a long time. Unless the price of black gold drops significantly soon, the downward pressure on the stock markets is unlikely to ease. But when will that happen? Tomorrow? Next week? Or in a month? The situation will likely ease gradually. But investors are shying away from bold bets and want facts, not words, to regain confidence.
Next week, the preliminary European inflation figures for March will reignite the debate over the ECB’s interest rate policy. In addition, as on every first Friday of the month, the monthly U.S. labor market data will be released.
And don’t forget: In Europe, clocks will be set back to standard time this weekend. The time difference with U.S. Eastern Time will thus return to the usual 6 hours.
S&P 500 Heatmap
S&P 500 performance in 2025
U.S. bond yield
2-year US bond yield
10-year US bond yield
Correlation between the price of gold and the US dollar
